"Second housing reform" is coming，50% off or 40% off when buying a house as standard，Will house prices fall this time?

"Second housing reform" is coming，50% off or 40% off when buying a house as standard，Will house prices fall this time? As the most special existence in China’s real estate market，Shenzhen’s property market has always been a benchmark。 Just on June 5th，Shenzhen has issued a 5,700-word draft opinion on the new property market policy.，Interpreted by the media as “second housing reform”。

Its content can be summarized into three points：

1. In total：In the 18 years from 2025 to 2035，Shenzhen will raise money to build 1.7 million units of various types of housing。
2. Policies led by real estate：Of these 1.7 million houses，Commercial housing accounts for 40%，Talent room accounts for 20%，Residential housing accounts for 20%，Public rental housing accounts for 20%。That is to say，next 18 years，Shenzhen can only provide 700,000 units of commercial housing，An average of less than 40,000 units per year。
3. The era of discounted home buying is coming。

The price of talent housing is about 60% of the market price，The price of affordable housing is about 50% of the market price。in，The talent room and housing room are closed for operation，A house cannot be put on the market after 10 years of purchase，But the premise is that a certain proportion of value-added income must be paid to the government.。

Shenzhen’s Second Housing Reform，Basically in line with "let the market return to the market"，The principle of "guaranteed to the government"，However, the imbalance in the proportion of commercial housing and policy housing、Insufficient overall supply、The lack of policies for renting and selling houses with equal rights and small property rights，will bring new problems。

1. Will commercial housing be in short supply? According to Shenzhen’s population plan，By 2035, the population will increase by more than 5 million，According to the configuration of 3 people per household，Corresponding to the demand for more than 1.7 million houses。

This simple math looks seamless，However，It ignores two core issues： One is，Failure to consider the shortage of housing stock。Shenzhen currently has a permanent population of 12.5 million，The actual resident population may exceed 18 million people。At present, Shenzhen commercial housing、The stock of affordable housing is less than 2 million units，At most, it can only support the housing needs of more than 6 million people.。the rest of the people，Most of them live in small-property houses and dormitories in industrial zones.。

Based on statistics from GF Securities，50% of Shenzhen’s population lives in small-property houses。Small-property housing itself is not recognized by law.，In the name of clearing up illegal construction, crackdowns are actually being carried out in various places.。How to meet the housing purchase needs of these people? The second is，Failure to consider the imbalance of the housing structure。according to plan，Among the 1.7 million houses in the future，Only 40% are commercial housing，Compared with a population of more than 5 million, it is obviously insufficient。

Although some of the population will be diverted to talent housing and housing housing in the future,。 but understand，Commercial housing is not only supported by academic degrees and transportation and medical resources，And there is also the support of a rigid payment mechanism for house prices.，Under the imbalance of supply and demand，It is difficult to reduce commercial housing prices。

1. How attractive are policy housing? Shenzhen has designed three housing models：commercial housing、Policy housing and public rental housing。in，Policy housing is divided into talent housing and housing housing.。

Public rental housing is only for rent, not for sale，This is easy to understand。Although the Talent Housing and Anju Housing can be purchased at a 50% or 40% discount,，But what you bought at this price is not all the property rights.，It is similar to buying a house in partnership with the government.，shared benefits，Shared risk，This is similar to Beijing’s shared property housing。 at the same time，Shenzhen designed a 10-year closure period。during the closed period，These houses cannot be put on the market for cash，Can only be transferred within the system，This means that these homes lose their liquidity。

Even after 10 years，Want to cash out，Value-added income must also be paid in proportion to the property rights.，This will affect market demand，The recent cold reception of shared property housing in Beijing is an example.。 Not difficult to imagine，In anticipation of skyrocketing house prices，Commercial housing will naturally continue to be the target of capital pursuit.。

1. new welfare era，How to distribute it fairly? The reason why affordable housing was not available at that time，Just because there are too many loopholes，Corruption and rent-seeking everywhere，News about driving a BMW and applying for affordable housing are endless.。 Talent room、A structure dominated by affordable housing and public rental housing，It means the arrival of a new welfare era。Talent housing and housing housing are closed for operation，It can indeed reduce the demand for speculation。 However，Insufficient stock and increment，More monks and less rice。

Since there is a lottery、draw lots、Waiting，I am afraid it will be difficult to avoid new corruption and rent-seeking problems.。 at the same time，Policy housing gives priority to talents，This is the inevitable result of the war to grab people in the city。But most talents，In fact, he originally had the potential to purchase a house.。There are only so many resources.，Provide housing specifically for talents，Although there is no lack of direct incentive effect，However, it has caused a certain degree of squeeze for the middle- and low-income people.。

1. Where is the right to rent and sell?

Since it is necessary to build a housing system that promotes both rental and purchase，Can leasing and selling have the same rights?，is a crucial issue。However，This plan，However, no timetable has been seen for promoting equal rights for leasing and selling.。 Why people chase houses，In addition to the awareness that housing prices continue to rise,，The various public benefits attached to the house are also key。 Although leasing and selling with equal rights has become a hot topic in 2025，However, the current progress in various places is very weak.。

If the various benefits attached to the house still cannot be removed，Then the rental housing promotion，I'm afraid it will be difficult to achieve the desired results。

1. What to do with houses with small property rights? Small property rights house，In the current housing structure，Always an embarrassing existence，The law does not recognize its status，cannot be traded freely in the market，Cannot be used for mortgage loans，And from time to time, we are faced with the crackdown on illegal construction.。

But as the data above shows，400Multi-million small property rights houses，Supports the actual rental needs of more than half of Shenzhen residents。How to treat houses with small property rights，What’s at stake for the future of housing policy。 Shenzhen has more people but less land，Land resources are relatively exhausted，This is the reason why house prices tend to rise but not fall。

But if we can start with small-property houses,，Give conditions to pay back the land transfer fee so as to become a regular official，Or give room for transformation and entry into the market，Presumably the market supply and demand pattern will be completely reversed，Housing prices will naturally stabilize。

1. Return to welfare housing? obviously，Shenzhen plan，It does not mean returning to welfare housing allocation。

Welfare housing allocation for the year，It is based on government agencies and units，Ordinary residents are excluded，This is only the privilege of a small circle，Therefore, the housing commercialization reform launched in 1998 has positive significance.。just in practice，Only the market tendency is too heavy，Insufficient safeguarding thinking。 This time the Shenzhen plan，It can be said to be an exploration of combining market and guarantee.，But it is still not enough to change the current property market pattern.。

The reason is，Insufficient land supply、House price rigid guarantee、The old problem of different rights for renting and selling still exists.，within a short period of time，I’m afraid it will still be difficult for house prices to go down.。 source：House House *Welcome to leave a message at the bottom，Communicate, learn and discuss with Tanglang Xiaozhu。

About Hong Kong Xintong

Hong Kong Xintong focuses onGuangdong and Hong Kong license plates、Shenzhen Hazardous Chemicals Business License、Shenzhen labor dispatch licenseandShenzhen Charity Foundationapplication services，Assist customers to applyShenzhen travel agency business license、Shenzhen pawn shop business license、Shenzhen auction house license and other mainstream domestic financial licenses，Support enterprises to achieve compliance expansion of cross-border financial business。Also availableODI overseas investment registration、International travel agency registration and other services，Help enterprises expand their presence in international markets。Provide one-stop compliance solutions for enterprises。To learn more，Please contactHong Kong Information Communications Consultant。