2025How much do you believe in the top ten economic predictions of the year?

From the perspective of Yu Shangjun, who has served the financial industry for ten years，Just the year 2025，The financial world has experienced a process from glory to stagnation.，At the end of the same year, “Internet finance” became a keyword restricted nationwide.。Precisely because of the recession at the end of 2025，As a result, development in early 2025 will also be affected.。Everyone is saying that 2025 will be the most difficult year，Are you ready?

Ten highlights of economic development：

1. 2025Annual GDP growth below 7% has become the new normal。
2. 2025The annual manufacturing PMI index below 50 has become the new normal。
3. 2025Interest rate cuts less than 2 times per year，RRR reduction 2 or more times。
4. The central bank’s economic stimulus may continue from time to time，However, there are no eggs，The downward trend of the real economy remains unchanged。
5. The growth rate of broad money M2 remained at double-digit growth rate，RMB’s internal depreciation intensifies，Structural inflation is a serious problem。
6. RMB exchange rate enters strategic depreciation channel，2025The RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar may fall below
7. 8。
8. The stock market Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out after completing the third wave of decline in the fourth quarter of 2025，2025The year was dominated by shocks and increases。
9. The second-child policy is fully liberalized。
10. Commodities show structural trends，Some varieties enter the bull market period。
11. China house prices：20142019 is a turning point for China’s housing prices，2025Relative price decline continues year-on-year，However, with the government’s strong efforts to maintain housing prices，2025Structural differentiation in the year：rise：rare；stable：The absolute price of property prices in first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will not drop significantly.，The overall price is predicted to be a narrow oscillation trend.，We cannot rule out sudden short-term rising prices in some cities.。

Property prices in second-tier cities such as provincial capitals remain generally stable，The increase or decrease will not be very large；fall：The contradiction between oversupply and demand in third- and fourth-tier cities is prominent，House prices in non-core areas are likely to plummet，Overall house prices show a downward trend，Accompanied by the phenomenon of a large number of unfinished buildings and small developers going bankrupt and running away。

2025The top ten macroeconomic predictions of the year：

1. The adjustment of the national economic structure is the focus of attention. The adjustment and rectification of national taxation and financial industry come first.，Utilizing national infrastructure to drive the economy forward，Import and export trade won’t be much trouble，The national resource industry and manufacturing industry will encounter continued softness，The reason is that there is no industry standardization that causes trouble，Now we are blindly optimistic about the Internet and IoT economy，If they are not rectified, it will hinder the orderly development of the business and service industries of the entire society.，The country will gradually eradicate labor-intensive low-end industries from their roots within three to five years.，2025It’s not about 200 million farmers moving into cities.，Instead, 200 million farmers voluntarily returned to their hometowns.，This is the key to realizing agricultural industrialization，National infrastructure, national defense industry, communications, energy, transportation, real estate industry, agriculture is the support point of the national economy in 2025。
2. The reform of the national fiscal system is a key point. The modern fiscal system needs to be legislated first.，national fiscal master plan，Focus on the overall situation and take a long-term view，Change the normal state of confusion and lack of standardization，Standardization and normalization of financial management are the key to China’s fiscal reform，Establish a transparent national budget system，Optimize allocation of financial resources，Maintain market unity，Promoting social equity is the key to promoting fiscal reform，2025The standardization and normalization of China's modern fiscal management is the starting point。
3. National tax reform is a key point. Tax reform：Optimize the tax structure，Adhere to clearing fees and establishing taxes，Strengthen tax coordination；Stabilize taxes：Correct handling of countries，enterprise，The distribution relationship among the three individuals；Adjust taxes：VAT，consumption tax，resource tax，agricultural tax，environmental tax，real estate tax，personal income tax，welfare tax；Business tax gradually changed to consumption tax，Farmers can be exempted from paying agricultural tax，But the state cannot abolish the agricultural tax，Real estate taxes can be deferred，To avoid welfare fund risks，Welfare fund changed to welfare tax，2025Tax reform is a major breakthrough for the country。
4. National rural reform is an eternal highlight. Document No. 1 is not just a song that stays in words.，The standardization system of new rural construction is the rudder that makes farmers feel at ease and the country's only sustenance for shortening the gap between urban and rural rich and poor.，Agricultural technology should be changed to technological agriculture, so we can’t just talk about it in vain，Technical agricultural industrialization is the positive result of agricultural development direction，Only the industrialization of China's agriculture is our reform，Only the peasant army is stable，Only then can we carry out reforms in a down-to-earth manner，Only 200 million farmers and workers returned home voluntarily，That is the triumphant song of the victory of my country's rural reform。
5. The adjustment of the national industrial structure is a key point to watch. The difficulty in national industrial standardization and processization is the key to restricting the adjustment of the industrial structure.，National industrial standardization and craftsmanship are industrial innovation and industrial product quality are the lifeblood of the industry.，Where can quality come from without standardization? Without quality, where would the market be? If our country wants to become an industrial power, product standardization and processization are key，We need to learn from the advanced experience of German industry。

Guarantee needed for industrial modernization：Technological innovation requires technical sources，Institutional innovation requires institutional sources，Enterprise innovation needs foundation，Industrial competition requires incentive mechanisms，National interests need guidance，Market demand requires the leading factors of industrial innovation。2025It will be very difficult to adjust the national industrial structure in 2020 because product standardization is our weakness.。

1. The construction of the national information industry is the highlight. my country’s informationization is a five-horse spear that can never find its source.，Too arbitrary，The hyped Internet and IoT are like bubbles，Seriously impacting and damaging my country's business and service industries，1+1The reality of =1 is before our eyes。

Software engineering is not standardized，Where did the talk of the world’s software power come from?，China's informatization construction is too weak，The construction of the national information industry cannot continue to develop like this，2025The Internet will face many legal troubles in 2020。

1. The adjustment of China’s population policy is a key point to watch. my country’s aging population is growing unstoppably.，Dramatic changes in the country’s demographic structure，Lack of labor will seriously hinder the development of the national economy，China’s elderly population (including 60 years old) is the total population of Japan
2. 67times the total population of Russia
3. 46times，It is imperative to relax the two-child policy，Otherwise, it will trigger a rapid recession in China’s economy，2025Even if the two-child policy is relaxed, it will take fifty years to relax.，This is the natural life cycle point。
4. The development of the real estate industry is a highlight. The real estate industry will develop healthily after adjustment.，But housing prices will spiral，All due to limited land resources，Land prices will not fall back，It is the constraint point of housing prices，In particular, the rise in commodity housing prices in big cities will not be reversed，Commodity housing prices in small and medium-sized cities fluctuate，All local governments are producing affordable housing in equal quantities.，Housing for disadvantaged groups will gradually improve，The real estate industry will develop steadily for twenty years。
5. The use of social capital to develop infrastructure and public utility construction is a highlight. The country has truly relaxed restrictions on social capital.，Social idle funds come in handy，to supplement the country’s financial shortfalls，For the first time, the country has officially absorbed social capital into the main battlefield of national infrastructure and public utility construction.，Social capital is no longer sailing against the wind，The country's loose policy requires the private economy to be more self-disciplined and responsible，Social capital investment is divided into two categories，Investment in infrastructure construction and investment in public goods are completely different in nature.，2025Social capital will show power。
6. China's rural welfare is the focus of political reform. Farmer stability is the key to China's social stability.，Welfare benefits for farmers in the elderly must be completely improved，Otherwise it will affect this stable country，Elderly people over 65 years old in rural areas can no longer stay at the poverty line of 70 yuan/month subsidy，Their subsidies are only 1/20 of the average monthly salary of urban retirees，There is no fairness in such social welfare，This is the source of social instability，Farmers’ retirement payments can no longer come in the form of subsidies，2025It is urgent to establish a farmer retirement pension fund system in。

With the promulgation of policy documents，Further implementation will become the main focus of development in 2025，Regardless of whether the top ten predictions are 100% consistent，But they all have their theoretical basis，Listen and understand，Belief is dark，2025The year has just begun，We need to confirm the economic development status，Some information comes from the Internet，For reference only。Want to know more about entrepreneurship，Follow the service account every time：shyushang

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